“AI will create more jobs” is technically correct and completely hollow.

Jevons is real. Cheaper software does mean more software. More software does mean more work. Nadella was right about the aggregates. Software-engineering postings up 30% YTD. AI wage premium doubled in a single year.

The pie is growing.

But “the jobs are growing” and “you are getting one of them” are different claims.

Entry-level tech postings are down 34% from 2020. Software developers aged 22–25 are down 20% from their 2022 peak. 35–49-year-olds are up 9%. Same industry, opposite directions.

The sharpest way to put it: adequate work at adequate speed is in trouble, because adequate is now free.

Jevons creates the demand. Who the demand reaches is a separate problem. And it’s the one nobody in the bullish threads is pricing in.

Full piece with the sources: https://joaofogoncalves.com/articles/2026/04/2026-04-23-ai-will-create-more-jobs-just-not-for-everyone/